Whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. After having their heart ripped out three times by the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round, the Buffalo Bills appear stronger heading into the 2022 NFL season.
Buffalo made targeted personnel moves during the offseason, patching holes and fortifying its biggest weakness from the year before — moves that many say were acts of panic and not careful planning for the future.
Whatever the cause, the Bills jumped up the Super Bowl futures board this offseason and enter 2022 as Big Game favorites, which also brings a lofty season win total and sizable spreads. These expectations are warranted for the best two-way team in the NFL.
We circle the wagons and take out the tables for our Buffalo Bills NFL betting preview.
Buffalo Bills futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +600 |
| To win conference | +325 |
| To win division | -240 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 11.5 (Over -150) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -700 / No +500 |
Best futures bet: Over 4.5 Divisional Wins +135
I’m calling an audible on this futures bet. I feel pretty confident Buffalo can get over 11.5 wins but I want no part of the -150 juice that comes with that wager. Instead, I turn my disdain for the rest of the AFC East into what looks like a great plus-money prop, pegging the Bills for five or more wins against their divisional rivals.
If you’ve taken in my previous team previews, you know I’m down on both the Patriots and Dolphins. That leaves little from the Jets, who may or may not have Zach Wilson in action.
Buffalo is going to go for the throat every time it plays Bill Belichick and Miami will be working out the kinks of Mike McDaniel’s playbook in the Week 3 meeting before a nasty sked spot at Buffalo later in the year (see below). And, of course, we have the Jets.
The Bills have lost just one divisional contest in the post-Brady AFC East — that being the wonky wind game versus New England in Week 13 last season. Buffalo is an average favorite of -6.83 in its six AFC East encounters this year, which pans out to an implied win probability of around 75% with room for one mulligan in those games.
Buffalo Bills betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
While much of the Bills’ support staff underwent a facelift, defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier stayed put in Orchard Park, aiming to replicate a defense that ranked out No. 1 in a number of statistical categories — standard and advanced.
The nickel-heavy schemes slowed down rival passing attacks and kept everything in front of them, while the defensive line was responsible for the bulk of a league-high 30.8% pressure rate with little help from additional blitzers. Sprinkle in the leadership and championship pedigree of Von Miller — on the field and in the locker room — and Buffalo’s defense is going to give bettors a shot every single week.
That unit will be tested early on with top-tier offenses showing up in the first two months of the schedule before sinking its teeth into a bunch of late-season foes working in new systems and young QBs.
What will lose bets: Sizable spreads
The market consensus on the Bills can be reflected in the line movement for their Week 1 game at Los Angeles. Buffalo opened as a 1-point road underdog visiting the defending Super Bowl champs and offseason action on the visitor has swung this spread as far as Bills -2.5.
Buffalo saw similar moves in many of its 2021 contests, finishing the regular season at 9-6-2 ATS vs. the closing line (10-6-1 ATS vs. opening spread). Eleven games featured adjustments toward the Bills, while three others stayed put, and only three moved against Buffalo — one of which was the Week 18 finale with the Jets.
Expectations are high in 2022 with the Mafia facing an average spread of more than six points over the course of the season with those lines likely spiking toward double digits when the second half of the season serves up softer foes.
Don’t show up on Sunday morning looking to bet the Bills. You’re going to want to get down on the openers and avoid the public pushing these lines any higher.
More Covers NFL betting analysis
- Super Bowl odds
- NFL MVP odds
- Comeback Player of the Year odds
- Defensive Player of the Year odds
Buffalo Bills game-by-game odds
Bouncing between the look-ahead markets at different books, you can get the Bills as the betting chalk in every single game on the 2022 board, with the Week 6 road game at Kansas City out there between pick’em and -1.5.
Buffalo draws an average spread of -6.09 this season (actually shorter than last year’s look-ahead average of -6.5) and the schedule gets softer as it plays out. The Bills face a roll call of tough teams in the first eight weeks (Rams, Titans, Dolphins, Ravens, Chiefs, and Packers) but should they survive that stretch with success, they can set the cruise control in the back half of the calendar.
Buffalo tackles an average spread of -7.3 in the closing 10 contests and those spreads will like climb by the time these games actually kick off. The Bills are 10-2 SU and 7-3-2 ATS as faves of -7 or higher the past two seasons.
| 1 | @ L.A. Rams | -2.5 | 52.5 |
| 2 | vs. Tennessee | -7.5 | 51 |
| 3 | @ Miami | -4 | 50 |
| 4 | @ Baltimore | -2 | 50.5 |
| 5 | vs. Pittsburgh | -9.5 | 46.5 |
| 6 | @ Kansas City | PK | 54.5 |
| 7 | BYE | ||
| 8 | vs. Green Bay | -3.5 | 52 |
| 9 | @ N.Y. Jets | -8.5 | 48 |
| 10 | vs. Minnesota | -7 | 49.5 |
| 11 | vs. Cleveland | -9.5 | 47 |
| 12 | @ Detroit | -9.5 | 49.5 |
| 13 | @ New England | -3 | 49 |
| 14 | vs. N.Y. Jets | -11.5 | 47 |
| 15 | vs. Miami | -7.5 | 47 |
| 16 | @ Chicago | -7.5 | 45.5 |
| 17 | @ Cincinnati | -2.5 | 46.5 |
| 18 | vs. New England | -6.5 | 42 |
Buffalo Bills pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
Best team in the league, but close to Kansas City. Cornerback is the one glaring weakness on the roster. They are lethal when Josh Allen decides to run.
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