The Cleveland Browns head to the nation’s capital to face off against the red-hot Washington Commanders on Sunday.
Washington has reeled off three straight wins with Jayden Daniels leading the way, and my Browns vs. Commanders predictions are backing the sensational rookie again. Here are my best NFL picks for this Week 5 clash on October 6.
Browns vs Commanders prediction
My best betJayden Daniels Over 9.5 rush attempts (+110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Washington Commanders lead the league in offensive EPA and success rate by wide margins and have punted just once over their last three games. That historic level of play simply isn’t sustainable — especially with a rookie quarterback at the helm.
That said, while I expect their passing efficiency to regress, they should continue to have success on the ground. Jayden Daniels is a blazing-fast QB that rushed for 1,134 yards on 135 carries, en route to winning the Heisman Trophy last year. That success has continued into the NFL where he has racked up 218 yards on 46 carries through just four starts.
Daniels had 10+ rush attempts in his first three games of the year, averaging 12.7 carries per game during that span. He rushed eight times for 47 yards against the Cardinals last week, but there was little reason for Kliff Kingsbury to give him designed runs in a blowout win. Daniels should get more designed runs here, especially if starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. doesn’t suit up due to a knee injury.
The Cards are also 31st in the league in pass rush win rate (28%) while the Cleveland Browns rank third (55%), so there’s a greater chance that he’ll be flushed from the pocket and forced into scrambling situations.
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Browns vs Commanders same-game parlay
Jayden Daniels Over 49.5 rushing yardsBrowns +3.5Amari Cooper Over 49.5 receiving yards
+360 at BetMGM
Washington’s offense is due for regression and Cleveland is the toughest defense Daniels has faced. The Commanders’ defense has been terrible, ranking 31st in the league in defensive success rate and 32nd in defensive EPA.
Although Cleveland’s offensive line is extremely banged up, Washington’s defensive front isn’t good enough to take advantage, and Deshaun Watson should be able to move the ball better than he has been. That has me leaning towards the team with the better defense, catching points in a buy-low spot.
For the Browns to cover, they’ll need to attack a terrible Commanders secondary. Amari Cooper is averaging 9.3 targets per game and hauled in seven of 12 targets for 86 yards against the Giants in Week 3, so the former Pro Bowler is poised for another productive day.
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Browns vs Commanders odds
Browns vs Commanders live odds
Browns vs Commanders opening odds
- Spread: Cleveland +3 | Washington -3
- Moneyline: Cleveland +145 | Washington -170
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Browns vs Commanders spread and Over/Under analysis
- Tickets and money have been all over the streaking Commanders, pushing them from -3 to -3.5.
- The Commanders beat the Cardinals 42-14 last week and are now 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games.
- The Browns are coming off back-to-back defeats against bad Raiders and Giants teams, holding a 1-3 SU and ATS mark this season.
- Daniels leads all quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE, while Watson ranks 28th out of 31 qualifying QBs.
