The first game of a brand-new NFL season is like a blank canvas. It sets the tone for the rest of the year, presenting endless possibilities and opportunities for teams to showcase their skills and make a lasting impression.
That’s especially true tonight, as football fans could be in for a masterpiece when the Detroit Lions take on the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. TNF odds opened with the Chiefs as 6.5-point favorites with the highest Week 1 odds total at 54.5.
Patrick Mahomes’ artistry will surely shine for KC, but who will step up for Detroit? I’m putting my money on rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who appears poised to eclipse his projected receiving yard total, even after sharps moved the NFL odds.
Here are my free NFL Week 1 picks and best bets for tonight’s Lions vs. Chiefs matchup. Make sure to check out our TNF props, our TNF spotlight props column, and our Lions vs. Chiefs predictions for even more expert analysis ahead of kick off.
Lions vs Chiefs odds
Lions vs Chiefs predictions
The Detroit Lions traded away D’Andre Swift and used a high first-round pick on rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and they will use him Thursday night.
Gibbs’ biggest contributions come in the passing game where he caught 78% of his passes in college for nearly 10 yards a target. He has elite 4.36 speed and can rip off big gains. He also has a top-tier offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson who will have plenty of opportunities to be creative with the rookie on Thursday night.
The Lions are 6.5-point dogs so the game script is in his favor and Gibbs could be playing against a soft defense late if Kansas City leads big late although I think this Over 29.5 receiving yards gets across the line well before then. The Chiefs allowed 47.4 receiving yards to opposing running backs last year which was a Top-5 mark.
The likely absence of pass rusher Chris Jones is also in Gibbs’ favor. With less of a pass rush, the rookie RB might not have to contribute to pass protection as much and be free to release on routes on time.
Sharp bettors already hit this when the markets opened driving the opening line of mid-20s to more than 30 yards at most books. As of Tuesday, there are still some 29.5s available, and that’s a bet I’ll be making at -120 at BetRivers.
With a possible 60/40 split of the snaps, most of his play coming between the 20s, and the skills to bust big gains, his milestone 125 total yards at +700 at bet365 is something I’m also on at 0.3 units.
This could potentially be the next Alvin Kamara and OC Ben Johnson will know how to use him. Considering he has a reception total of 3.5 and a long reception of 14.5 yards, the Over 29.5 receiving yards is a play I’d bet up to 32.5 or 33.5 yards.
My best bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 29.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetRivers)
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Not intended for use in MA.Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Lions vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Gibbs Over 30.5 receiving yardsGibbs Over 39.5 rushing yardsOver 54.5
+510 >> +765 at Caesars
Not every bettor loves SGPs but Caesars does have a decent promo of a 50% boost up to $25 which might not be for everyone but a decent boost for lower-wager bettors. This boost turns a potential $127.50 profit into $191.25 on a $25 bet.
If Gibbs sees the Swift role in Johnson’s offense, a 5-6 target, double-digit carry night is reasonable. Considering being 6.5-point dogs with a massive total, Detroit could see some soft defenses and consistent gains late.
Both offenses can score and KC could force Detroit to be aggressive if Reid dismantles the 31st-ranked defense from 2022. If Gibbs goes off, these numbers could look like a steal.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
